"closing bell" next. after wearing this hat, i need a break. i'm going in. nothing is coming out. have a great weekend, everybody. not sure what just happened now, but we welcome you to "closing bell," nonetheless. we get back to business here. i'm bill griffeth at the new york stock exchange. >> i suspect we may have to send out a search party. i'm mandy drury. hello, everybody. i'm sitting in for maria bartiromo today. losses and gains today. coming up today, we will take a look at whether or not you should buy back into this market ahead of a possible deal. >> a few of the traders on the floor have been saying they're thinking about doing that right now. how are the fears of the fiscal cliff affecting the individual invest investor, though, and their confidence? we're going to speak exclusively to the ceo of ameritrade.

in the meantime, a look at the markets. it's been a zigzag day. complicating this is it's expiration day. futures and options are going off the board. that always causes some volatility. that rise midday was after the congressional leaders came out of the white house and used the word constructive to describe the meeting. right now the dow is off the highs, up just nine points now at 12,552. we do expect more volatility and more volume in this last hour. the nasdaq is up about eight points now at 2844. the s&p 500 index with a gain of just two points at 1355. equities have been set to end the week on a sour note. then we did get that little bit of hope that maybe our leaders in washington can be reasonable with each other. the major averages have had a rough week. it's even worse since the

election, down about 5%. >> john, i would like to kick this off with you. what is, first of all, the latest in washington? >> mandy, bill used the word hope a moment ago. everybody since the election has been hoping that washington, both parties, white house and congress, can find some way to work together. that was the tone the president struck when he gathered the bipartisan leadership of congress at the white house this morning. >> my hope is that this is going to be the beginning of a fruitful process where we're able to come to an agreement that will reduce our deficit in a balanced way, that we will deal with some of these long-term impediments to growth, and we're also going to be focusing on making sure that middle class families are able to get ahead. >> and nobody, including the

president, could fail to have been encouraged by the tone that was struck by all four members of the bipartisan leadership when they came out from that meeting this morning, including the most important negotiating partner of all a, house speaker john boehner. >> the framework i've outlined in our meeting today is consistent with the president's call for a fair and balanced approach. >> i feel very good about what we were able to talk about in there. >> we're prepared to put revenue on the table, provided we fix the real problem. >> i feel confident that a solution may be in sight. >> and in terms of the nature of that solution, what was discussed in the meeting was a two-step process in which the leaders and the white house first agree on a framework, an amount of deficit reduction it, both tax increases and spending cuts, and then they kicked the filling in of those details into the early months of 2013. they would do that with a legislative mechanism that

provides some assurance to the american people and to the financial markets, guys, that those blanks would be filled in by the time they need to to avoid the fiscal cliff. >> very big blanks. okay. thank you very much. david, a couple words we've heard here are hopeful and encouraged. are you feeling more hopeful and encouraged today? should the markets be feeling more hopeful and encouraged? >> right. we want to see three things for us to get very bullish for a more sustained -- this is a back and forth. this is a renting and dating kind of market. this is not a marriage market where you're off to the races and everything's been solved. we want to see real personal income, mandy, which has been not very good the last 12 months. it's been very flat. after you take out inflation -- secondly, production. one of the things that hurt the market was the october industrial production number, which came in much lighter than expected. finally, the profits, mandy. this is a psychology and policy driven market right now.

everybody's focused on the white house and the beltway. that can definitely lift the market. for it to be sustained from there, the three ps. profits, production, and personal income. >> fundamentals. jeff, what about you? morgan stanley investment management has been worried about the market all year anyway because of profitability in this economy. what about you? are you more constructive or not? >> i think the fiscal cliff is clearly giving investors a lot of grief. the first stage of grief is denial. we were there up earlier in the year. second stage is anger. we've seen a lot of that late i with the selling. third stage is bargaining. we may just reached that fourth stage. there are befoargains being created. >> but you're not ready to buy yet? >> not yet. >> i want to get to you, steve liesman. >> i thought you were going to

ask me the rest of the 12 steps. >> you know, the republicans, we're hoping for a compromise, but the republicans have been digging in their heels because they've been saying higher tax rates would be job killers. who what extent would they be job killers? >> well, i'd say there's a huge debate over that. i know there are people who believe religiously that any tax increases will reduce job growth. i think that in the first order, whatever your religious feelings on that, uncertainty is almost certainly a job killer before somewhat higher taxes are. i think huge tax increases obviously would reduce job growth. if you think about what's happened to our tax code, a lot of it has become on a year to year basis. i have no idea how businesses can plan. with the fiscal cliff, without a solution, it takes nearly the entire tax code and puts it on a year to year basis. i would be very weary right now of listening to these hopeful terms that come out. they can solve this thing for this year. but the question is, do we end

up back next year with another fiscal cliff situation? >> so it's a chronic problem. >> we have to get off this chronic problem issue. we have to set up a situation where we can get our revenue and spending in line with each other since we don't have huge and long-term deficits. >> rick, are you feeling more hopeful right now? >> listen, to hear ms. pelosi, boehner, all the brass of the house and the senate actually acknowledge that there is a hippopotamus in the room, it was a very positive thing. most of the discussion has been about the 70 or 80 billion and the upper 1%. that's important to some, but let's keep our eye on what simpson and bowles have talked about, the entitlement reform. i think that is optimistic. you can clearly see that the markets thought that as well. if it wasn't for the other bad story, or the other story, which is bad, and that's the middle east. down here, positions going home are dramatically affected by

uncertainty and what's going on in the middle east. we did have a fresh 2 1/2 month low yield. if we settle here in tens and a seven-month high on the dollar versus the yen, those are the highlights from a market perspective. >> i want to make a very quick point. once we get past the fiscal cliff, we have to get at what mr. darst was talking about, which is figuring out what part of the weakness in the economy is sandy and which part is weak ne weakest in the economy. it's been down more than you would think. i agree no one expected this from the storm -- >> well, they blame the storm too. >> i would like to know the profit pictures to make the right investment call based upon how bullish did you get for a post fiscal cliff agreement? >> very quickly, you got to make money here. what do you do? >> home building stocks are the number one group thus far this year. you want to go back to your technology. apple, that thing is down over

25% now. buy some apple. buy it on a scale down basis. average down on apple. that would be one thing. oracle is another one. that is at the basis. and qualcomm. those three, bill. >> okay. jeff? >> looking to hedge where the s&p 500 may go. looking at holding some cash. also looking at some opportunity where is they're emerging. oil, for example, on mideast conflicts starting to lift higher. that might be an opportunity. >> just like to wish xi jinping, the new president of china, all the best. may he have success, social stability, and integrating china into the world economy. he took office yesterday. god bless him and god bless china. >> let's see if he can get past all those conservatives. >> thanks, guys. yesterday, when maria sat down with alan simpson and erskine bowles, simpson took aim at republicans like grover norquist who have pledged not to

raise taxes under any circumstances. listen to this. >> i've always said about grover he's wandering the earth in his white robes. what can he do to you? he can't murder you. he can't burn your house. the only thing he can do to you is defeat you for re-election. if that means more to you than your country when it means patriots instead of panderers, you shouldn't be in congress. >> joining us on the phone with reaction is mr. grover norquist from americans for tax reform. i know alan simpson has never been a big fan of yours, but what do you think about what he that had to say yesterday, especially after the election? >> well, he's left similar rambling statements on our voicemail at the office. alan simpson ranting is not news. the proposal that he put together and that people like paul ryan rejected back in 2010 would take taxes as a percentage

of gdp from 18.5% during full employment, the average over the last 30 years, to 21%. that's a 2.5% of gdp tax increase or $5 trillion tax increase over the next decade. he tends not to mention that. add to that $1 trillion in limiting deductions -- >> okay, you're deep in the weeds here, grover. first of all, did alan simpson really leave a message on your voicemail? >> oh, several. rambling and long and inane. yes. >> all right. now, even john boehner and mitch mcconnell came out of that meeting in the white house and used the word revenue. it's on want table. they are acknowledging they will raise revenue. the only way i know to raise revenue is to raise taxes. i mean, does it sound to you like there's going to be a tax increase after all? >> no. if you remember, the comment that boehner and mitch mcconnell

have made is they want revenue from economic growth. the best way to get revenue for the federal government is to grow the economy faster rather than slower. if you grow at 4% a year instead of 2% a year for one decade, the government raises $5 trillion. that is how you balance the budget. you cut spending, just as the republicans did in the last half of the 1990s. they cut the capital gains tax. we had more growth, and we slowed spending. that's what we need to focus on, not raising taxes on the american people and of course, obama's tax increases are there, but he hasn't put any spending restraint on the table. we look forward to seeing what he might be thinking of. >> mr. norquist, if you had to put money on it, do you think we're going to go over that cliff? >> well, it depends. i think if we can have these negotiations in front of c-span cameras, not in hiding, this is what the president promised four years ago he would do. he's not yet done it.

let's get the c-span cameras in there. two, whatever they agree to should be put online for the american people, not just the lobbyists in washington, but the american people so they can see it for seven days before anybody's asked to vote for it. if we have transparency and honesty, we'll have a much better end deal. >> is that going to happen? i'm going to quote you on this. this is your wish list. is that going to happen? >> that's not going to happen. >> actually, i think it will happen. the good news is the president is on a sugar high from winning the election. he's over time realizing that the republicans won the house of representatives just as much as we won the presidency. so the idea that he gets to tell everybody what to do is fading every day. >> all right. grover norquist, good to talk to you again. thank you for joining us. >> good to be with you. >> you bet. about 45 minutes left heading toward the close. we might get some volatility. we're definitely going to get more volume as a the options and

futures go off the board on this expiration date. the dow is up 15 points right now. >> it is, indeed. stick around, everybody. we are just getting started on this jam-packed edition of the "closing bell." i think there's about a one-third probability we'll get a deal in lame duck. about a one-third that we'll go over the cliff. and be able to reach a deal right after wards nap will be okay. but there is that one-third chance that we won't and we'll end up in chaos. >> somebody here says the fiscal cliff will be fixed in time and you should buy into this market before a deal is reached. plus, fiscal cliff fears. td ai mer trade ceo tells us in realtime how investors are preparing and a how going over the cliff could harm investor confidence. and it looks like apple stock has fallen off recently. is the worst yet to come, or is it time to take a bite out of this stock?

plus, walking out on walmart. employees threaten to leave the retailer high and dry thanksgiving day. could black friday sfwurn black and blue thursday? it's all ahead on the "closing bell." so uh this is my friend frank and his, uh, retirement plan.

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stocks staging a comeback now following an encouraging meeting on the fiscal cliff between the president and congressional leaders at the white house earlier today. bob is here with all the action. >> bill, put that dow up. you ask yourself, what's it worth when boehner, pelosi, mcconnell, and reed all start talking nice to each other? it's worth 120 points on the dow. we're not far from the highs of the day. some hope we can get a modest rally. the vix has really collapsed going into the close. we're near the lows for the week on the vix. some of those closed end funds like pimco, high yield, phk also

doing a little better today. finally, i'm going to mention home builders also a doing better on the day. back to you. >> okay. thank you very much, bob. well, thanksgiving is less than a week away, and the trend is growing for stores like walmart to be open for business that day. shoppers seem to love it, but workers, for obvious reasons, do not. >> yeah, some walmart workers are now pledging to walk out if they are forced to work on that holiday. walmart has already said they plan to open at 8:00 p.m. on thanksgiving. joining us now, a husband and wife, greg and charr lean fletcher, both employees of walmart. both scheduled to work different shifts on thanksgiving day. we welcome you. greg, you have said you're going to walk out that day. you're not going to call in sick. why are you going to do that? >> well, the reason why i'm going to do this is it's not so much us working on thursday. what the black friday strike is really about is retaliation against walmart workers for standing up for their rights,

for trying to, you know, come together in organized fashion and trying to make the workplace better. not only for ourselves but for our customers as well. >> what kind of retaliation have you faced? >> me, i've had -- well, personally i've had name calling and other -- from management against myself. other workers throughout the country have experienced things as much as write-ups, other kinds of management intimidation. some have had their jobs threatened. >> are you both not afraid of being fired over this? >> charlene? >> no. >> why not? >> i'm not afraid because i know my rights, and i have the right to speak up as well as everybody else. it's freedom of speech. i plan to exercise that. >> do you like your job, charlene? >> i do enjoy my job. walmart takes a lot away from a lot of us putting our full

potential forward because they hold us back understaffing. i do enjoy my job. i just wish they'd give us the tools and opportunities to give our best. >> the reason i ask where you li -- whether you liked your job or not is you could always quit and go some place else. if you don't like the hours they're making you work on a holiday, you don't like the retaliation, being name called by your manager, why don't you go some place else? >> well, that's a very valid question. the reason why i continue to stay and to do what we're doing is we do like our job. i don't feel like my manager has the right to intimidate and push me out. plus, the system is really broken. our organization is a nationwide organization that's groaning expoenl shlly every day. it's more about trying to fix something that we care about. we'd like to see it work. the store has potential.

the company does have potential to be a good employer. i see it more as i want to make this thing work. >> okay. you want to get your message out there. greg, charlene, thank you for sharing your experience. here responding to the fletchers and the wider threat of workers walking out on thanksgiving is walmart spokesperson. david, thank you for joining us. if the fletchers and others walk out next thursday, will they be fired? >> look, i'm not going to comment on what may or may not happen next week. today we filed an unfair labor practice charge against the ufcw. make no mistake about it, our walmart is a wholly owned subsidiary of the united food and commercial workers union. the unions have been trying to organize walmart for years unsuccessfully. no they' now they're trying new tactics that are aimed at trying to get the media to cover it. unfortunately, they're breaking

the law. we're going to do something about it. >> what law are they breaking? >> so there's -- the way the national labor relations act works is there's -- part of the law that is around recognitional picketing and trying to be recognized as a you knowon, which is what they're trying to do. they're trying to represent our workers, but they haven't followed any of the rules they need to do in order to be recognized as a you knowon. >> david, are you going to be working on thanksgiving? >> absolutely. bill in the stores on black friday as will many of our executives. we're looking forward to a great black friday. we have great plan in place. we're going to have over 1 million workers working that day. >> what about thursday? >> yeah, thursday as well. absolutely. i'll be working on thursday as well. >> i want to go back to the first question that we asked here about whether they are going to be fired. you can't answer that though. why? >> yeah, sure. i'm sorry. i can absolutely answer that question. you know, we think our workers

are getting some really bad advice from the unions because while they do have rights and we respect those rights, you know, there are some actions that we will take if people don't follow our company policies. just like if you didn't show up for work one day, i think your bosses would want to have a conversation with you about why. now, of course, if you have an excused absence, if you're sick or something like that, of course we understand. that's not what's going on here. >> if the fletchers just walk off the job, they don't call in sick, and they make it clear they're walking off because they are protesting the work environment there at walmart where they don't feel they're being heard appropriately, are they likely to be fired? >> we want to listen to them. we want to hear whatever their concerns are. you know, not with a union representative there. they've been to our home offices. we want to sit down and listen to them, but they don't want to do that. every circumstance is going to be different on black friday. we'll take them on a case by

case basis. >> we hope you can figure this out. thank you, david. >> thanks for having me on. we are counting down to the bell. let's take a look at what the dow is up to. we have been all over the place today. at this stage, we're moving up by 0.3%. that's 37 points. >> i've heard the bias on the close is to the up side, to the buy side. we'll see if that holds. apple shares have lost a quarter of its value in the past two months alone. when we come back, we'll look at if this is the ultimate bargain or ultimate value trap in talking numbers. plus, delta is resurrecting older jets from airplane graveyards rather than buying new ones like its competitors. are you going to feel safe? back in a moment. at scottrade, we believe the more you know, the better you trade. so we have ongoing webinars and interactive learning, plus, in-branch seminars at over 500 locations, where our dedicated support teams help you know more so your money can do more. [ rodger ] at scottrade,

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stock markets trending higher but generally doing it without help of apple today, hitting another nine-month low. shares now virtually neutral, down 31 cents, $525. that's a rounding error for a stock that expensive. it's nearly $200 below its intraday high of more than $700 a share it hit two months ago. is this selloff justified? is it a buying opportunity? is it a value trap? let's talk numbers with two

analysts who have different points of view. on the technical side, rich ross. on the fundamental side, our bear. rich, you like apple at these levels. >> i don't like apple, i love a apple. it's a compelling buy. when we bring up the chart, we see the ipad is not the only thing that's 25% smaller over the last two months. you see that precipitous selloff in this stock. now, along the way we've taken out the 200-day moving average for the first time in over 18 months. the last time we did that, the stock was 28% higher one month later. we think history repeats itself. we're looking for a v-shaped reversal off key support at 530. there's up side to 635. that's 22% over the next five weeks. we're a buyer of apple. >> all right. zach, you're not, though, are you? >> 635 is awfully precise, rich. i'm glad your price target was

666, otherwise we would have had to head for the hills. look, i love apple as a company. i love apple products. i've held the stock for ten years. but once you've -- and i've been saying this long before the recent pullback. i'm wrong about a lot of things. i was right about this one. once you become a $500 billion company that is, you know, an overweight of 6, 7%, it is awfully difficult to continue that run. other people take profits, as they've been doing, i think, wrongly ahead of a fear of dividend tax rates. then you have just the issue of, you know, where does this become an overweight again? a 7% overweight. >> right here, zach. if becomes an overweight right here, down 25% from that high. ten times earnings. 0.5 peg. this is the premier company in consumer electronics. this is a once in a lifetime opportunity. this is a great trade. premier company, no question about it. premier stock.

exxon has been a premier company for a long time. for a long timmpany went nowhere. you have the law of big numbers. people are going to look for a dynamic change that may or may not come. i'm not suggesting one short this. i'm going to keep my old long position. you know, people are going to keep selling apple as a way of getting away from that dividend tax hike. >> what did you buy it for ten years ago? >> i think it was in the low hundreds. >> i can do better. i used to make a market of this stock. it was at $13. it had $12 in cash. you couldn't give it away. at 12, it was an insult. at 35530, i love it. >> love it when they disagree. thank you, guys. mandy. >> thanks, bill. we seem to be rallying just a little bit going into the close here. at this stage, the dow is moving higher by 41 points, up by about

0.3%. we seem to be getting a bit of optimism here that a fiscal cliff deal in some form may be reached. our next guest says, however, buyers beware. the talk out of d.c. is really just that, taulk, and this markt will get a whole lot worse before it gets better. and later, td ai mer trade ceo weighs in on how it's impacting investors. stay with us on the "closing bell." tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 when i'm trading, i'm totally focused. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and the streetsmart edge trading platform from charles schwab... tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 gives me tools that help me find opportunities more easily. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i can even access it from the cloud and trade on any computer. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and with schwab mobile, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i can focus on trading anyplace, anytime... tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 until i choose to focus on something else. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 trade at charles schwab for $8.95 a trade. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 open an account and trade up to tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 6 months commission-free online equity trading tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 with a $50,000 deposit. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 call 1-866-294-5412.

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i think there's about a one-third probability we'll get a deal in lame duck. about a one-third we'll go over the cliff and be able to reach a deal right afterwards. that'll be okay. but there is that one-third chance that we won't and we'll end up in chaos. >> that, of course, former debt commission co-chair erskine bowles talking exclusively with maria yesterday on "closing bell." so what should investors do amid uncertainty? so far, most have been selling. is that the right move right now? >> indeed, that is the questionings bill. well, joe of united capital is confident we'll get a deal and thinks sellers could regret their moves.

c nr cnbc contributor dan greenhouse says it's going to get worse before it gets better. dan, you're being a big old downer here. everyone else seems to be starting up the group hug in washington. why not you? >> just because they're putting on a big party in front of the cameras doesn't mean that they're any closer to an agreement behind the scenes. i mean, let me be -- i understand that btig is in the severe minority in believing this suspe this isn't going to work. >> give us one reason. >> well, you have to remember from the democratic standpoint, they want higher taxes. i don't agree necessarily with the position, but barack obama ran the election on raising tax rating on the top 2% of income earners. from that standpoint, he has the weight of the argument in his corner. >> do you think he would let it go over of the fiscal cliff to have better bargaining power? >> yes. >> dan? >> yes. >> okay. >> also, let's not forget several prominent democrats want the president to go over the

cliff, so to speak, to improve the bargain. >> well, that's a bargaining argument, i would think, at some point. joe, why are you optimistic? >> first of all, this has become a battle of semantics rather than actual facts. both parties have agreed there needs to be increased revenues. as soon as that gets said, it's very clear. increased revenues means higher taxes in some form. either reduce spending or higher taxes. >> but grover norquist spun that a while ago. i asked that very question. he said, you can also raise revenue by growing the economy. >> grover norquist was very clear in saying that increasing revenues would not be something that he wouldn't care about. he does not want higher tax revenues. >> joe, what do you tell your clients? saying what the final deal is going to look like is basically like trying to predict the weather in march 2014. we don't know what it's going to be. what do you tell your clients? >> we're looking at our clients' entire net worth.

we have advisers around the country who have been getting this question for months. no matter who wins at the end of the elections, we're going to have increased volatility because we're going to have increase in taxes almost certainly. what you have in certainty is the obama health care bill and investment income taxes. what that means for everybody is that you're better off realizing gains on any stocks. i think apple is falling a lot because people have very big gains, and they'd rather capture those gains today at a rate that's lower than they -- >> so you know there are people out there for example selling the high yielders and dividend stocks. >> we know is there's a lot of tax realization. those dividend stocks have appreciated a lot in the last couple of years. so you have tax management. >> dan, what would you do right now? are you going to buy or sell here? >> we're certainly on the more negative side of things. with respect to the topic of the dividend payers, you can see since the election the top

quintile of dividend payers have done terribly in relation to the rest of the market. the relationship is from the bottom left to the top right. if you don't pay a dividend, you are doing much better than if you do. >> you also have much appreciation in that time frame. i think we're going to see a lot of volatility as we have with any recovery. we tend to be patient. >> joe, do we end higher or lower at the end of the year? >> from where we are today? >> uh-huh. >> wooirng hii think we're high. >> okay. you're on the record. >> but with volatility, as he would say. thank you for joining us today. heading toward the close. we have had some volatility. the dow near the highs of the day with a gain of now 50 points. bias, i was told, was to the up side. that's happening now. >> it is, indeed. in fact, the real question is, are stocks going to skyrocket if we do see a deal on the fiscal cliff reached soon?

barclays head of research larry cantor is going to weigh in on that one. also after the bell, profiting from poverty. it may sound bad, but it's a really good thing for the struggling bell. we'll explain why that's the case later on the "closing bell." stay tuned. and all of a sudden, ka-plam. it blindsided us. what is it? our college savings account. how do you think it happened? not sure. i think something we bought a while ago turned out to be something else, annnnnd, i remember a lot of other stuff in there had the word "aggressive" in it. is everyone okay? well, now, yeah. who knows later. ♪

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markets rallying towards the close around the highs of the day. in the meantime, can washington deliver a deal? investors seem a bit more hopeful today after comments from congressional leaders this morning. the market indeed turn around when they spoke. >> yes, however, erskine bowles, the foreman debt commission co-chair, one of the arkt tects of the simpson/bowles plan, told maria yesterday he still has real concerns. listen. >> if we get over the cliff, we don't have a deal, and the market doesn't anticipate that we're actually going to be so stupid as to go over the cliff, then i think you'll see the market really crash. >> well, so what is larry cantor at barclays telling his clients? for you, this is partly a timing

issue. if it does take a long time, if we do go to the brink t would be worse for the markets, don't you think? >> absolutely. and it could well do that. one thing i want to point out here is cliff is actually a bad word. people seem to think over $600 billion of tax increases and spending cutting are going to hit the economy all at once on january 1st. that's not true. the 600-plus is if it lasts throughout 2013. >> it's more like a fiscal runway. >> it's more like a fiscal bridge. for example, social security taxes will go up if nothing is done. you'll get more withheld, but it goes through every paycheck over the years. same with unemployment. the spending cuts occur over the year. it's really a bleed. of course, markets will not like it, if you don't get an agreement by december 31st. but there's a decent chance. there's a lot of work to be done. there's not a lot of time left. i think probably the most likely thing is they're able to delay all these things because they say they've made progress.

i think this is, if you have a long enough horizon, investment horizon, this is probably a buying opportunity. >> what would you buy? >> look, i wouldn't buy -- one thing i wouldn't buy, part of the downdraft here, now that we know we have an obama administration, is taxes on capital gains and dividends should certainly go up. it's not clear how much. and we've seen, as your previous guests pointed out, the dividend stocks go down. i actually think you want to be in something like the cyclical stocks. look, the odds that they're not going to come to an agreement at all throughout next year, to me, is very, very employee. >> are etfs the place to be considering the taxes? >> i think that's a good place to be. think about the odds. i mean, if you're the president and you want to get anything done in your term, you've got to get a deal at some point. otherwise, you're not going to do whatever else is on the agenda, like climate change. the republicans have already

been chasing by defeat. they're on their heels. they're going to want a deal. they don't want to be portrayed as the group that tossed the economy into recession. there's a lot of work to do. >> are you selling anything before the end of the year in anticipation of those higher taxes? >> i think if you have a short investment horizon, this is a good time to lighten up. it is -- look, today we saw some nice noises. up until today, since the election, both sides drew lines in the sand with the president saying we are going raise tax rates on upper income and the republicans saying no taxes. i think it'll go negative, positive. >> do you see a scenario -- >> with a downward drift. >> do you see a scenario where no deal, crash, or we get a deal, skyrocketing? could it be as black and white as that? >> i don't think so, no. what i think is it's going to be a very nervous, choppy market

with a downward drift until we hear something. they're going to want to avoid going through the end of the year without any deal at all. i think what you'll get is they'll extend everything for a few weeks or whatever, saying they're making progress. i don't think the markets will necessarily be so happy about that. >> kicking the can down the road is not progress. >> exactly. i think that's the most likely thing. i think you will get a deal at some point and the markets will rally, especially if it's a long-term deficit cutting deal that has credibility. if you get that, because that will avoid a lot of near-term fiscal tightening because it will be a ten-year deal and it'll be back loaded and the markets -- you'll see a very significant rally. i think it's when that happens, not if. that's my view. >> okay. >> thanks, larry. >> okay. about 13 minutes to go, folks, until the closing bell. closing out the trading week. at this stage, the dow is slightly below its highs of the day. we were getting up there toward

60 at one point. >> congressional leaders may be optimistic about fixing the debt situation. we're going to try and put $16 trillion into perspective coming up. >> that is with a "t," not a "b." also ahead, hostess says union workers are cloforcing it close its doors. the union blames romney. really? the throwdown is coming up.

as we head toward the close, it looks like famous last words. volatility may be settling down a bit. the dow was up more than 40 points a moment ago. now up 29. volume surely will spike here on the close because it is expiration day on wall street. a lot of options and futures are expiring right now. so everybody from washington to wall street is talking about fixing the debt. here's what alan simpson of the

simpson/bowles commission told maria on the program yesterday. listen to this. >> the big bang theory of the universe was 13,600,000,000 years ago. that ain't even close to 1 trillion, and we owe 16 of those babies. >> we don't want to lose sight of what the debt is. just remember, it is $16 trillion. what can you get for that? >> indeed, what can you get for $16 trillion, besides a swift kick towards the fiscal cliff? why not buy apple, exxon, walmart, google, and ibm all of them combined. >> not just as a group, but eight times as a group. you could buy 30.4 billion shares of apple today. that's even more than steve wozniak owns right now, i'm sure. and this is my favorite. with that money, you could buy

$53 million mcdonald's franchises. >> yeah, or -- >> and here's your favorite. >> the hope diamond, but not just one hope diamond. you could buy the hope diamond 64,000 times. that's a lot of bling, bill. >> in your dreams, drury. in your dreams, right? >> okay, so that's what you get for $16 trillion. >> that's a lot of dough. there's the number. it continues to climb. >> okay. coming up next, folks, we're coming back with the closing countdown. after the bell, the latest "twilight" movie looks like at blockbuster in the making. we're going to look at what that film means for the company l lionsgate. and delta is digging through the airplane graveyard. where it could help them fly above the competition. we'll be right back. melons!!! oh yeah!!

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which is why he trades with a company that doesn't nickel and dime him with hidden fees. so he can worry about other things, like what the market is doing and being ready, no matter what happens, which isn't rocket science. it's just common sense, from td ameritrade. okay. about 3 1/2 minutes left here. i'm going to run through these charts quickly, just get the picture in your mind of the trends for the week. this was very much a risk-off week, as it was last week after the election as we await the results of the fiscal cliff. where do you see the flight to

quality to the dollar, for example? that's always a good proxy here. you saw it especially the latter part of the week here. the dollar is going up with a gain of about 0.2%. the stock market, as the dollar goes higher, the euro goes lower, stocks go lower. the nasdaq is in correction territory. the dow and s&p are flirting with that right now. the yield on the ten-year, they buy treasuries as a flight to safety. the yield comes down about 2% on the ten-year this week. now well below 1.6%. price of oil, that's all over the map this week. two things going on, the economy, the fiscal cliff, but the third thing -- there really are three things, the increasing tensions in the middle east. you saw those blips with those increasing tensions. price of gold as the dollar goes higher, gold goes lower. for the week, we're down 1% there at 1712. the sectors, very much the risk-on sectors are the ones suffering the most.

so energy, materials, technology, financials, are the ones you're going to see them sell if they expect the fiscal cliff negotiations to drag on here. what's the message for the market right now? you ready buy yet on this market? >> michael shay is not ready to buy yet. however, i'll tell you it was nice to see that short-term bottom today prior to the white house press conference. it's not as though a whole lot changed. it's been the same message we've got all week. but we got the message in a different setting. we got it at the white house, and we got it after they had met. >> is any deal satisfactory for the market? just get a deal so we get some clarity of how much we're going to pay in taxes, whether it's capital gains or income or whatever it is. any deal. >> no, i don't think any deal. to me, there has to be a deal that actually finally makes sense. >> gary? >> you want to buy some drug stocks. they were not in the group that it lost, as you just -- >> health care was damaged less

this week. everybody was down this week, but health care was damaged less. >> johnson & johnson, these are the kind of names. >> you're still playing it defensively. >> defensively, bill. this week you'll have the lead economic indicators on wednesday, the day before thanksgiving. happy thanks giving to you and all of yours. >> and yours as well. >> you've got the housing starting. you have the home builders confidence. that's been one of the pillars of a recovery. china doing a little better. hope they'll be able to do better. >> as we go out on this expiration, going out on the highs of the day. nothing to write home about. 50 points on the dow. the s&p is up seven points right now. do we take anything from that? >> yeah, we will take it. after a week like this, after the market action since the election, yeah, we'll take, you know, a higher friday close, sure. >> thanks, guys. >> nobody does it like you, bill. >> oh, please. nobody wears a tie like that either. that's the first hour of the